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Experts on EU leader's summit

CNC report from Brussels

Added On May 23, 2012

European Union leaders will meet in Brussels on Wednesday.

They're hoping to keep the bloc's debt crisis from spiraling out of control alongside promoting jobs and growth. 

The issue of eurozone bonds looks likely to dominate the meeting, and may polarize opinion.

Let's take a look.

Cinzia Alcidi, Research Fellow at The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), told CNC that Wednesday's summit in Brussels is expected to tread a fine line between talking about ways to promote growth and sticking to commitments to balancing budgets. 

SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) CINZIA ALCIDI, RESEARCH FELLOW AT CEPS:
"I think it will depend a little bit on the market conditions whether the pressure will increase and there will be once again a situation of emergency. For the moment the official agenda is still about growth whether than crisis management. But it looks like that there would be some discussions about crisis management. And the pressure about solving the Spanish banks problem is increasing."

On Tuesday the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warned that the 17 countries that use the euro risk falling into a severe recession.

The organization forecast the economic growth rate in the eurozone will decline by 0.1 percent before rebounding to 0.9 percent in 2013.

It has called on governments and Europe's central bank to act quickly to keep the slowdown from dragging down the global economy. 

NYU Stern School of Business Professor Nicholas Economides also says Europe's central bank could have had a system to tackle the problems.

SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) NICHOLAS ECONOMIDES, NYU STERN SCHOOL OF BUSINESS:
"They could have had a system in which the deposits are guaranteed by the European Central Bank, the same way as the deposits of a depositor in New York are not guaranteed by the state of New York but by are guaranteed by the Federal Reserve, by the federal government. So this is a weakness of the banking system in Europe. And given that weakness, when you have a severe crisis like in Greece or in Portugal or in Spain people are going to take their savings and move it somewhere there they think things are more safe."

Meanwhile, the electoral turmoil in Greece threatens to pull apart the eurozone.

Markets will remain nervous until the Greek elections in June.

But experts say the cost of staying within the eurozone has become very high.

SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) CINZIA ALCIDI, RESEARCH FELLOW AT CEPS:
"The situation is very complex but I think the latest elections in Greece have changed the perspective about the Greek problem in the Eurozone. I think that there was quite a strong message coming from the Greek people that the cost of staying within the Eurozone has become very high, probably higher than the expected benefits of exiting. Now the expected benefits of exiting are very difficult to assess and probably most people are not aware of the cost that it will imply but on the other hand, the message of the people when we are in democracy should be heard. So I think that the elections have changed the situation and the expectation is that in June 17th what we saw a couple of weeks ago will remerge even reinforced with probably a stronger majority of the parties opposing the austerity measures imposed by the troika."

Professor Nicholas Economides says the chance of a Greek exit from the eurozone has been growing rapidly.

SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) NICHOLAS ECONOMIDES, NYU STERN SCHOOL OF BUSINESS:
"It's possible that it might leave the euro voluntarily and create a new currency under those circumstances. Now that would be a real disaster for Greece because the new currency is going to be severely devalued, there are going to be, all the important goods are going to become very expensive, so they might print too many new drachmas and therefore there will be inflation."

Borrowing costs are also up for the most indebted governments.

There's an increasing number of reports of worried savers and investors pulling funds out of banks that are seen as weak.

SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) CINZIA ALCIDI, RESEARCH FELLOW AT CEPS:
"An exit from the Eurozone is something that should be planned in advance. The problem is that we don't have much time, and if there is really a bank run situation, the emergency could increase quite rapidly and would be very difficult to set the exit in an orderly way and then it would be very problematic. Now, going back to a national currency is not something that can be done from one day to another. There will be a moment when people will go to the ATM machines and they will not be able to withdraw euros; and the contracts will have to be redefined international contracts which are now denominated in euros will have to be changed; and they may be even international dispute about which is the new currency."

As well as exploring ways of resolving the sovereign debt problems that have threatened the stability of the euro, the leaders will assess how to stabilize their banking systems.

Spain is a particular concern, with a number of its banks laden with bad debts.

The total amount of bad debt is estimated at more than 180 billion euros (240 billion U.S. dollars), while efforts to recapitalize and restructure the stricken banks have so far fallen short.

Experts say one proposal on the table is for the eurozone's rescue funds to be allowed to recapitalize banks directly, rather than having to lend to countries for onward lending to the banks.

SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) CINZIA ALCIDI, RESEARCH FELLOW AT CEPS:
"I think the Spanish banks are in need for help and probably one of the topics that will be debated in the next Council will be about the possibility of Spanish banks to knock at the door of the European Financial Stability Facility. Now there is quite strong opposition coming from both Germany and Spain actually, about the fact that banks could access directly European money; Germany because this is money of the tax payers and Spain because the country will lose some control on banks and this is something that government don’t like to do. However, I think that at this stage, there is really not a choice and banks need fresh capital, they don’t need to borrow money; they need capital, there is a need for recapitalization. And the government cannot do it and the banks alone cannot do it because they would be unable to raise money on the markets given the economic environment in which we are now."

But Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Tuesday it was necessary to come up with a way of dismantling banks across borders, a possible nod to a eurozone bank restructuring scheme.

At the height of the debt crisis last winter, Merkel proposed a so-called "fiscal pact" that would tie member countries to strict fiscal and deficit targets. 
But France's new Socialist President Francois Hollande has said that he won't sign Europe's fiscal pact until it includes measures to promote growth. 

In his first EU summit, Hollande has also chosen to take a stand on eurobonds -- the idea of mutual eurozone debt -- despite the fact Germany has strictly opposed them due to fear of higher inflation.

But some experts support Hollande in that position.

SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) NICHOLAS ECONOMIDES, NYU STERN SCHOOL OF BUSINESS:
"Inflation is something that results when the economy gets overheated. Right now, we are in a situation in which the economies are way underheated, where we have recession in most countries in the European Union and countries that are not in recession have very low growth rates anyway. So in that environment creating stimulus policies, imposing stimulus policies is not a bad idea at all and it’s unlikely to create long-run inflation."
 
However, the Netherlands, Finland, Austria and some smaller eurozone member states say eurobonds are the wrong prescription.

Analysts think no decisions will be made at Wednesday's summit, but it is clear that the debate over eurobonds and related bank rescue concerns will be intense.

On Tuesday, agreement was reached with the European Parliament and European Union (EU) member countries on the Commission's proposal for the issuance of "project bonds".

Under the deal, the EU will set aside 230 million euros (about 292 million U.S. dollars) in guarantees to support the issuance of project bonds for EU infrastructure projects.

Olli Rehn, the European commissioner for economic affairs, says the future issuance of the bonds will help finance commercially viable infrastructure projects in transport, energy and communications.

He says project bonds could use 230 million euros of the EU budget to attract a total of 4.6 billion euros of investment in infrastructure.

The Commission had also called on EU member states to commit a further 10 billion euros to the European Investment Bank (EIB) to allow it to do more for growth and jobs.
 

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